Category: Trading

Prediction: Market Correction or Big Market Decline?

What is your prediction: are the markets in the middle of a correction, or will the markets be heading substantially lower?

My opinion is that this massive sell off we are seeing is more than a correction, I believe the markets are heading significantly lower. I see NASDAQ bouncing between 2100 to 2200 for 2-4 weeks. I do not think NASDAQ will hit 2000, but breaching 2100, in my opinion, seems possible and likely.

NASDAQ 2 Year Chart:

NASDAQ 2 year chart

Dow 2 year Chart:

Dow 2 year chart

S&P 500 2 year Chart:

S&P 500 2 year chart

What is your prediction regarding the market action we are seeing around the world right now?

I have also created a new forum thread at the Enhanced Trader Forums: Prediction: Market Correction or Big Market Decline? Share your predictions and thoughts about the action we are seeing in the stock markets.

BIDU Soars 28% in Pre-Market Trading

Baidu.com (Ticker: BIDU, Market: NASDAQ) has released first quarter earnings Wednesday morning, beating estimates with soaring profits and an expanded customer base. BIDU stock price has jumped up +17.74 (28.90%), currently trading at 79.12 per share.

For the quarter through March, the Beijing-based company said it earned 35.2 million yuan ($4.4 million; euro3.5 million), or 1.02 yuan per share (13 cents per American depositary share). A year ago, the company earned just 2.5 million yuan, or 0.08 yuan per share.

Sales tripled to 135.6 million yuan ($16.9 million), compared with last year’s 45.7 million yuan.

I had previously mentioned BIDU on April 5th, in my article: Eye on China Internet Stocks, at which point BIDU was trading at 55.50 per share. Since my original article on April 5, BIDU has soared +23.62 (42.56%).

Vonage (Ticker: VG) IPO

Vonage (Ticker: VG Market: NYSE) will be traded on the NYSE stock market in a few short weeks. Vonage provides VOIP services, allowing you to make phone calls using your broadband cable modem or DSL internet connection, generally providing phone services cheaper than non-VOIP telephone providers. Vonage offers unlimited calls to anywhere in the U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico, and Europe for $24.99 per month.

Here is some information regarding the upcoming Vonage (Ticker: VG, Market: NYSE) initial public offering (IPO):

Vonage Holdings (VG)
Expected Date: Week of 5/22/2006
Price Range: $16.00 – $18.00
Shares Offered: 31.3 mm
Business: A leading provider of broadband telephone services. A Voice-Over-IP (VOIP) provider.
Industry: Telecomm-Cellular
Employees: 1393
Founded: 2000

I have heard Vonage is offering its customers the ability to buy shares of the stock before it is traded in the markets. I cannot verify this information as of yet, but once I can confirm or deny this I will let everyone know. A current Vonage customer has told me this information but I have not yet seen any written documentation. I will update this story as more information becomes available.

How I Started Trading

How I Started Trading – Part 1

How I got started in Stock Trading.

My adventures in stock trading all started one day when the Trading Bug bit me. Just kidding.

Since I was a kid, I have always wanted to start and run my own business. I wanted to become a successful entrepreneur. I consider myself creative and inventive, which is likely a result of my obsessive love of Lego’s growing up. I have always had a passion for creating ideas in my head, then building them up myself, whether it be playing with Lego’s or building my knowledge with my Trading Winner blog.

My desire to become a profitable investor started in high school. In my junior year I was given a choice of classes I would like to take. I chose economics. I didn’t know much about economics, finance, or business going in to the class, but thanks to a great econ teacher, Mrs. Pride, I quickly learned the basic elements, ideas, and strategies used in business. I knew I should pay close attention and keep a keep a mental notebook of all the things I learned in economics class. I was motivated not only by my own desire, but also by the powerful, yet relaxed, style Mrs. Pride used to convey her own knowledge.

Mrs. Pride would always have a weekly or monthly project for our class. One project was to build and manage a virtual stock market portfolio. The winning team was given a price, a pizza party. I love pizza so I wanted to be the winner. Unfortunately, my team and I did not win. But, I gained valuable experience and the potential success one could gain in the stock market sparked my interest.

Another project she gave us involved stock market research, or Due Diligence. Mrs. Pride assigned us a publicly traded company and our goal was to produce a written and oral report about everything we could research about our company. My company was Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL). She had us write and mail a letter our company’s public relations office and ask them to send us a copy of the annual report. We also had to find out everything else we possibly could. We had to analyze the report, do our research, and then present our company to our class. This project helped me to learn the fundamentals of researching stocks and companies. At the end of the class, I knew the basics ideas used in analysis, research, and investing. Most importantly, my interest in the stock market had sparked and ignited.

In college, I continued my pursuit of business and financial knowledge. I had a long and deep love for computers, in addition to my interest in business and finances. Half of my classes were dedicated business (which I use as an umbrella term for finance, economics, accounting, investing, entrepreneurial studies, etc.), and the other half of my classes I used to develop a stronger foundation in computer science.

I took many business oriented classes in college, in order to learn as much as I possibly could. One saying I love is “knowledge is power”, which I strongly believe to be true. The classes I took, and tried to master, were: economics, finance, accounting, marketing, sociology, psychology, mathematics, statistics, and general business studies. I have taken numerous classes on each subject, learning as much as I could in order to master the topic. I wouldn’t call myself an expert in any of those fields, but I probably know more than the average person.

In addition to classes I have taken, I have also read numerous books, articles, and magazines relating to business, investing, trading, or general finance. There are too many great books to mention, but I’ll name a few of my favorites: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, which covers investment principles and value investing; The Art of War by Sun Tzu, which has helped me plan, strategize, and execute my ideas; and Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosake, which I strongly recommend everyone read and learn. These books, among many others, have inspired me not only to learn, but to develop and apply myself to becoming successful and reach my personal goals.

How I Started Trading – Part 2 coming soon.

Using Stop Loss Orders to Reduce Risk

Using Stop Loss Orders to Reduce Risk

First we need to cover 3 major questions about stop loss orders:

  • What is a stop-loss order?
  • Why should a stock market trader use stop loss orders?
  • How do I place a stop loss order?

What is a stop loss order?

A stop loss order is an order that you place through your broker that tells your broker to sell your shares if the stock price hits a specified price. When the stock price hits your stop loss price, the order will execute and your shares will be sold.

Why should I use stop loss orders?

Stop loss orders are used to reduce the risk you are taking on when you buy stocks. Stop loss orders will automatically execute when the stock price hits the lowest price you want to sell at. Generally, most traders will use a stop loss of 1-2% of their entire portfolio value. So that if the stock trade is bad, they’ll only lose 1-2% of their portfolio, which on a good day, a skilled trader can make this loss back plus more.

How do I place a stop loss order?

Placing a stop loss order will vary from broker to broker. Most online brokers have this order type in their normal order entry page. You may need to contact your broker for instructions on how to place stop loss orders using their system. With Ameritrade, it’s pretty simple. Stop Loss is one of the order types to select from.

An example of how a stop loss works.

You have $10,000 dollars in your entire portfolio. You buy 100 shares of XYZ stock at 10.00 per share. First, you need to calculate the greatest amount of money you’re willing to lose on this trade. The money we’re willing to lose is the amount of risk we are willing to take. Most daytraders are willing to risk 1-2% of their entire portfolio value. We will use 1% of our entire portfolio value in this example. The math is: (entire portfolio value) * (percentage of entire portfolio value we are willing to risk or lose). For our example, this will be $10,000 (total value) * .01 (.01 is the numerical representation of 1% – which is how much we will risk). $10,000 * .01 = $100. We are willing to lose or risk $100 on this trade.

Now we need to calculate the share price we want to set our stop loss at. You take the current value of your XYZ holdings, which is $1000 (100 shares times $10 per share). Subtract the maximum amount you are willing to lose from our XYZ value: $1000 – $100 = $900. This $900 is the amount of money we will have if our stop loss order executes. Now, take $900 and divide it by the total number of shares to get our price to set the stop loss at: $900 / 100 = $9. So, $9 is our stop loss price. This is the price you will sell XYZ at due to risk management of 1% of total portfolio value. If and when the price of the stock falls to $9, our stop loss order will automatically execute and sell your stocks.

By using stop loss orders, we know our risk and how much money we may potentially lose in a trade. Psychologically, we are prepared to accept the loss, since we know our sell out price. Stop loss orders reduce risk by limiting potential losses in poor trades.